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Lean Forecasting Demystified

Minimize Supply Chain Waste, Maximize Value

Struggling with a cumbersome forecasting process yielding unsatisfactory results? Lean Forecasting Demystified by Steve Clarke offers a transformative solution by applying lean principles to forecasting. Clarke delves into how the lean approach, renowned for its radical reduction of costs, lead times, and inventory within the manufacturing environment, can revolutionize forecasting.

This guide champions lean business forecasting, favoring practical tools over complex technology to enhance accuracy swiftly and affordably. Clarke’s accessible style, infused with humor and real-world examples, guides readers through optimizing forecasts, managing safety stocks, and reacting effectively to demand shifts.

With plentiful illustrations and actionable insights, Lean Forecasting Demystified empowers organizations to adopt lean principles, cutting waste, enhancing customer service, and boosting supply chain performance.

Purchase Lean Forecasting Demystified:

The articles below, published through LinkedIn, include some of the topics covered in the book.

Fix this 1 forecasting practice and improve your supply chain immediately and forever!

Forecast bias can lead to excess inventory or constant shortages—both costly mistakes. Unlike random variation, bias is induced by management practices and is completely avoidable. Learn how to identify and eliminate forecast bias to drive better performance and achieve more accurate results.

Part 1: Unlock all that cash tied up in inventory

Today’s tip: conduct an Item Level Excess Inventory Analysis to address the critical few process gaps

Are your Forecasts Doing More Harm than Good?

Is your forecasting process adding value or just creating more error? Forecast Value Added (FVA) measures the effectiveness of your forecasting efforts. If your current process isn’t outperforming a simple naive forecast, it’s time to rethink your strategy. Learn how FVA analysis can help streamline and improve your forecast accuracy.

3 Great Strategies to Minimize C Item Pain

C items generally contribute about 5% of revenue, even though they account for about 50% of our items. So, understanding an appropriate strategy for these items will certainly take complexity out of your supply chain.

What the milkman can teach us about inventory management excellence

Remember the milkman? He unknowingly practiced kanban every day by replacing only the empty bottles left on your doorstep. This “pull” system ensures you get exactly what’s needed when it’s needed—no more, no less. Discover how kanban can do the same for your supply chain.

A Cautionary Tale about Forecast Inaccuracy

How a bad forecast and Mothers’ Day flowers almost cost me my job

60% of Supply Chain Professionals Answered this Question Incorrectly - Customers Beware!

Available to Promise (ATP) is critical functionality if you want to consistently commit to the correct customer delivery date. So, why do most supply chain professionals not understand how it works?

One Key Practice to Help Build Trust with Your Customers

There are many supply chain organizations that are quite unreliable when it comes to meeting their commitments as to when product will be available for their customers. Here is one practice that will help you earn that trust back.

Customers Want to Know When Will their Products Arrive. Why is it so difficult?

Managing customer order dates seems simple, but many organizations struggle with aligning and defining key dates—order receipt, request, ship, and delivery. Without this clarity, measuring lead time and meeting customer expectations becomes difficult. Explore how to improve date management and boost your supply chain performance.

Understanding "Good" and "Bad" Forecast Inaccuracy

A simple target practice analogy to explain the different types of forecast inaccuracy and how one type is completely avoidable.

The 2 Biggest Errors in Forecast Accuracy You Didn’t Know You Were Making

Measuring forecast accuracy is far more complex than it appears! It’s not just about whether the forecast is right or wrong—it’s about when you get it and how you define demand

"Make Everything as Simple as Possible, but not Simpler" - Albert Einstein

I break down the 8 types of waste in forecasting through the lens of Lean principles. Learn how reducing waste can improve accuracy and efficiency in your demand planning process.

Forecasting Efficiency: Shifting from Item-Level to Product Family for Better ResultsUnderstanding "Good" and "Bad" Forecast Inaccuracy

Discover why forecasting at the product family level often delivers more accurate results than item-level forecasting, andlearn when to make the transition.

The Power of Demand Shaping: Reducing Volatility for Better Forecasts

Introducing my latest article on how demand shaping can drastically reduce volatility and improve forecast accuracy. From “Happy Hour” origins to real-world supply chain strategies, learn how to enhance your forecasting without extra investment.

Mastering Forecast Accuracy: Conquer Artificial Volatility for Supply Chain Excellence

“Hope is not a strategy” –James Cameron’s words ring true in forecasting as well. Setting arbitrary targets won’t improve accuracy, especially with volatile demand. But reducing artificial volatility can. Discover how to identify and mitigate unnecessary spikes in your supply chain for better forecasting results.

Part 3: Forecast Simplification - Keep It Simple Strategies (K.I.S.S)

Is your sales team spending too much time forecasting instead of driving revenue? Simplifying the forecast update process can help. From setting detailed forecast time fences to leveraging ABC item stratification, learn key strategies to improve forecast accuracy and focus on what matters most.

What this Picture from Mars tells us about a Common Forecasting Mistake

We humans have a tendency to see patterns that do not exist. This often translates to unnecessary adjustments to forecasts, that then become less accurate.

Choosing the Right Forecasting Strategy: Key Insights for Supply Chain Success

Forecast accuracy drives better supply chain performance, but many organizations struggle to choose the right forecasting strategy. The key? Understand your item’s demand volatility and volume. Learn how to apply forecasting strategies based on these factors to boost performance and optimize resources.